台積電 2023 第三季法說會詳盡全文

台積電今(19) 日舉行第三季法說會，由台積電執行長魏哲家、財務長黃仁昭帶來台積電第三季營運成果與第四季展望，以及先進製程與海外布局狀況的簡報。《科技新報》透過 AI 工具轉錄並由編輯稍做修飾，第一時間帶來台積電法說會最完整的報導。

First, TSMC’s Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the third quarter 2023, followed by our guidance for the fourth quarter 2023. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC’s CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the company’s key messages.

首先，台積電的副總裁兼財務長黃仁昭先生將會總結我們2023年第三季度的營運情況，接著是對2023年第四季度的預測。之後，黃先生和台積電執行長魏哲家博士將共同提供公司的重要訊息。

As usual, I would like to remind everybody that today’s discussions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

如往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的討論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能面臨重大的風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中所包含的內容有重大差異。

Please refer to the safe harbor notice that appears in our press release. And now, I would like to turn the call over to TSMC’s CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, for the summary of operations and the current quarter guidance.

請參閱我們新聞稿中的安全港原則。現在，我將把電話交給台積電的財務長，黃仁昭先生，來總結營運情況並提供本季度的財測。

Thank you, Jeff. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today.

謝謝你，Jeff。大家下午好。感謝大家今天能夠參與會議。

My presentation will start with financial highlights for the third quarter 2023. After that, I will provide the guidance for the fourth quarter 2023.

我的簡報將從2023年第三季度的財務重點開始。之後，我將為2023年第四季度提供指導。

Third quarter revenue increased 13.7 percent sequentially in NT dollars, or 10.2 percent in U.S. dollars, as our third quarter business was supported by the strong ramp of our industry-leading three nanometer technology and higher demand for five nanometer technologies, partially offset by customers’ ongoing inventory adjustment. Growth margin increased 0.2 percentage points sequentially to 54.3 percent, mainly reflecting higher capacity utilization, partially offset by the margin dilution from N3 ramp.

第三季度的收入以新台幣計算，季成長了 13.7%，或以美元計算，成長 10.2%。我們第三季度的業務成長來自於我們業界領先三奈米技術的強力推動和客戶對五奈米技術的需求增加的支持，不過，部分被客戶持續的庫存調整所抵消。成長利潤率連續增加 0.2 個百分點，達到 54.3%，主要反映了產能利用率的提高，同樣部分被 N3 擴產導致的利潤稀釋所抵消。

Total operating expenses accounted for 12.6 percent of net revenue, as compared to 12.1 percent in the second quarter, mainly due to higher R&D expenses to support our three nanometer and two nanometer development. Operating margin was 41.7 percent, down 0.3 percentage point from the previous quarter. Overall, our third quarter EPS was 8.14 NT dollars, and ROE was 25.8 percent. Now, let’s move on to the revenue by technology.

總營運費用佔淨收入的12.6%，相較於第二季度的12.1%，主要是由於我們為開發三奈米和二奈米的研發費用增加所致。營業利潤率為 41.7%，較上一季度下降 0.3 個百分點。總的來說，我們第三季度的每股盈餘為新台幣 8.14元，而股東權益報酬率為 25.8%。現在，讓我們來看看各項技術的收入情況。

Three nanometer process technology contributed 6 percent of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while five nanometer and seven nanometer accounted for 37 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Advanced technologies, defined as seven nanometer and below, accounted for 59 percent of wafer revenue.

三奈米製程技術在第三季度為晶圓收入貢獻了6%，而五奈米和七奈米則分別佔了37%和16%。先進技術，定義為七奈米及以下，佔晶圓收入的59%。

Moving on to revenue contribution by platform, HPC increased 6 percent quarter over quarter to account for 42 percent of our third quarter revenue.Smartphone increased 33 percent to account for 39 percent. IoT increased 24 percent to account for 9 percent. Automotive decreased 24 percent to account for 5 percent, and DCE decreased 1 percent to account for 2 percent.

轉向平台的收入貢獻，HPC 季度增長 6%，佔我們第三季度收入的 42%。智慧型手機手機增長了33%，佔比達到 39%。物聯網增長了24%，佔比達到 9%。汽車業務下降了24%，佔比為 5%，而消費性電子下降了1%，佔比為2%。

Moving on to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with cash and marketable securities of 1.55 trillion NT, or 48 billion U.S. dollars. On the liability side, current liabilities increased by 159 billion NT, mainly due to the increase of 95 billion in accounts payable and the increase of 59 billion in accrued liabilities and others. Long-term interest-bearing debt increased by 30 billion NT, of which 10 billion from new issuance and 20 billion from foreign exchange rate movement.

轉到資產負債表，我們在第三季度結束時的現金和市場可交易證券為 1.55 兆新台幣，或 480 億美元。在負債方面，流動負債增加 1590 億新台幣，主要是因為應付帳款增加了 950 億，以及應計負債和其他項目增加了 590 億。長期帶息債務增加了 300 億新台幣，其中 100 億來自新發行，200 億來自外匯匯率變動。

On financial ratio, accounts receivable turnover days increased three days to 35 days, while days of inventory decreased three days to 96 days. Regarding cash flow and CAPEX, during the third quarter, we generated about 295 billion NT in cash from operations, spent 227 billion in CAPEX, and distributed 71 billion for fourth quarter 2022 cash dividend.

在財務比率方面，應收賬款周轉天數增加了三天，達到 35 天，而存貨周轉天數則減少了三天，降至 96 天。關於現金流和資本支出，我們在第三季度從營運中產生了約 2950 億新台幣的現金，花費了 2270 億新台幣在資本支出上，並分配了 710 億新台幣作為 2022 年第四季度的現金股利。

Overall, our cash balance increased 35 billion to 1.31 trillion NT at the end of the quarter. In U.S. dollar terms, our third quarter capital expenditures total 7.1 billion. I have finished my financial summary. Now let’s turn to our current quarter guidance.

整體來說，我們的現金餘額在季度末增加了 350 億，達到 1.31 兆新台幣。以美元計算，我們第三季度的資本支出總計 71 億。我已經完成了我的財務總結。現在讓我們來看看我們當前季度的指導。

Based on current business outlook, we expect our fourth quarter revenue to be between 18.8 billion and 19.6 billion U.S. dollars, which represents a 11.1 percent sequential increase at the midpoint. Based on the exchange rate assumption of one U.S. dollar to 32 NT, gross margin is expected to be between 51.5 percent and 53.5 percent, operating margin between 39.5 percent and 41.5 percent.

根據目前的業務展望，我們預計第四季度的收入將介於 188 億至 196 億美元之間，季增率約 11.1%。基於一美元兌換 32 新台幣的匯率假設，毛利率預計將介於 51.5% 至 53.5% 之間，營業利潤率則介於 39.5% 至 41.5% 之間。

This concludes my financial presentation. Now, let me turn to our key messages. I will start by making some comments on our third quarter 23 and fourth quarter 23 profitability.

這結束了我的財務報告。現在，讓我轉向我們的關鍵訊息。我將從對我們第三季度23和第四季度23的盈利能力做一些評論開始。

Compared to our third quarter guidance, our actual gross margin exceeded the high end of the range provided three months ago by 80 basis points, mainly due to a more favorable foreign exchange rate. Compared to second quarter, our third quarter gross margin increased by 20 basis points sequentially to 54.3 percent, primarily due to a higher capacity utilization rate and a more favorable foreign exchange rate, partially offset by the margin dilution from the initial ramp up of our three nanometer technology.

與我們第三季度的預測相比，我們實際的毛利率超出了三個月前提供的範圍上限80個基點，主要是由於更有利的外匯匯率。與第二季度相比，我們的第三季度毛利率季增了 20 個基點，達到 54.3%，主要是由於產能利用率提高和外匯匯率更為有利，部分被我們三奈米技術初期擴產的毛利率稀釋所抵銷。

We have just guided our fourth quarter gross margin to decline by 1.8 percentage points to 52.5 percent at the midpoint, primarily due to the continual margin dilution from this steep ramp of our three nanometer technology.

我們剛剛提供的第四季度財測，毛利率下降1.8個百分點，中點為52.5%，主要是由於我們的三奈米技術產能快速增加持續稀釋利潤。

As a reminder, six factors determine TSMC’s profitability, leadership technology development and ramp up, pricing, cost reduction, capacity utilization, technology mix and foreign exchange rate. To manage our profitability in the next several years, we will work diligently on our internal cost improvement while continuing to strategically sell our value. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate, of which we have no control over, we continue to forecast a long-term gross margin of 53 percent and higher is achievable.

提醒一下，六個因素決定了台積電的盈利能力，包括領先的技術開發和提升，定價，成本降低，產能利用，技術組合以及外匯匯率。為了在接下來的幾年中管理我們的盈利能力，我們將努力改善內部成本，同時繼續策略性地銷售我們的價值。排除我們無法控制的外匯匯率影響，我們仍然預測長期毛利率達到53%甚至更高是可達成的。

Next, let me talk about our 2023 CAPEX and depreciation. Every year our CAPEX is spent in anticipation of the growth that will follow in future years. Given the near-term uncertainties, we continue to manage our business prudently and have tightened up our capital spending throughout the year where appropriate. We now expect our 2023 CAPEX to be approximately 32 billion U.S. dollars. Out of the approximately 32 billion CAPEX for 2023, about 70 percent of the capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies. About 20 percent will be spent for specialty technologies and about 10 percent will be spent for advanced packaging, testing, mask making, and others.

接下來，讓我來談談我們2023年的資本支出和折舊。我們每年的資本支出都是預期未來幾年將會帶來的增長而花費的。鑑於近期的不確定性，我們持續謹慎經營我們的業務，並在適當的情況下，全年緊縮我們的資本支出。我們現在預計我們2023年的資本支出將約為320億美元。在預計的320億資本支出中，約70%的資本預算將用於先進的製程技術。大約20%的資金將用於專業技術，而大約10%的資金將用於先進的包裝，測試，製版和其他項目。

Our depreciation expense is now expected to increase by low 20s percentage year-over-year in 2023 as compared to our January forecast of approximately 30 percent year-over-year increase. Despite the near-term inventory cycle, our commitment to support customers’ growth remains unchanged and our disciplined CAPEX and capacity planning remains based on the long-term structure market demand profile.

我們的折舊費用現在預計將在2023年較去年增加低於20%的比例，相較於我們一月預測的約30%的年增率。儘管短期的庫存週期存在，我們對支持客戶增長的承諾仍然不變，我們的有紀律的資本支出和產能規劃仍然基於長期結構市場需求概況。

We will continue to work closely with our customers to plan our long-term capacity and invest in leading-edge specialty and advanced packaging technologies to support their growth while delivering profitable growth to our shareholders. Now let me turn the microphone over to C.C.

我們將繼續與我們的客戶密切合作，規劃我們的長期產能，並投資於領先的專業和先進的包裝技術，以支持他們的成長，同時為我們的股東帶來盈利的增長。現在，讓我將麥克風交給C.C.

Good afternoon, everyone. First, let me start with our near-term demand and inventory. We concluded our third quarter with revenue of U.S. $17.3 billion in line with our guidance in U.S. dollar terms. Our business in the third quarter was supported by the strong brand of our industry-leading 3-nanometer technology and higher demand for 5-nanometer technologies, partially offset by customers’ ongoing inventory adjustment. Moving into fourth quarter 2023, while AI-related demand continues to be strong, it is not enough to offset the overall cyclicality of our business.

大家下午好。首先，讓我（魏哲家）從我們的近期需求和庫存開始。我們的第三季度收入為173億美元，與我們的美元財測相符。我們第三季度的業務得到我們業界領先的3納米技術的強大品牌和對5納米技術的更高需求的支持，部分被客戶持續的庫存調整所抵消。進入2023年的第四季度，儘管與AI相關的需求持續強勁，但這還不足以彌補產業整體的週期性。

We expect our business in the fourth quarter to be supported by the continuous strong brand of our 3-nanometer technology, partially offset by customers’ continual inventory adjustment.

我們預期我們的業務在第四季度將由我們3納米技術的持續強勢品牌所支持，然部分仍被客戶持續的庫存調整所抵銷。

On the inventory side, we expect the fabless semiconductor inventory to have continuously reduced in the third quarter. However, due to the persistent weaker overall macroeconomic conditions and slow demand recovery in China, customers remain cautious in their inventory control. Thus, we expect the inventory digestion to continue in the fourth quarter.

在庫存方面，我們預期第三季度IC設計的庫存將持續減少。然而，由於整體宏觀經濟狀況持續疲弱，以及中國需求恢復緩慢，客戶在庫存控制上仍然保持謹慎。因此，我們預期庫存消化將在第四季度持續進行。

Having said that, we are observing some early signs of demand stabilization in the PC and smartphone end market. Together with such level of inventory control, we forecast the fabless semiconductor inventory to further reduce and exit 4Q23 at a healthier level.

話雖如此，我們在PC和智慧型手機終端市場仍觀察到一些需求穩定的早期跡象。與此等級的庫存控制一起，我們預測IC設計的庫存將進一步減少，並在2023年第四季度末達到更健康的水準。

Next, let me talk about our global manufacturing footprint update. TSMC’s mission is to be the trusted technology and capacity provider of the global logic IC industry for years to come. As we have said before, our strategy is to expand our global manufacturing footprint to increase customer trust, expand our future growth potential, and reach for more global talents. Our overseas decisions are based on our customers’ needs and the necessary level of government support. This is to maximize the value for our shareholders.

接下來，讓我談談我們全球製造業足跡的更新。TSMC的使命是成為全球邏輯IC產業未來數年的值得信賴的技術和產能供應商。如我們之前所述，我們的策略是擴大我們的全球製造業務範疇，以提升客戶的信任，擴大我們未來的成長潛力，並尋求更多的全球人才。我們的海外決策是基於我們客戶的需求以及政府支援的必要程度。這是為了最大化我們股東的價值。

In Europe, after conducting extensive due diligence, we announced our plan to build a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany, focusing on automotive and industrial applications. We have received a strong commitment to support this project from our JV partners, the European Commission government, and German federal, state, and city governments. This fab will utilize 22 and 28 nanometer and 12/16 nanometer technologies for semiconductor wafer fabrication. Fab construction is scheduled to begin in second half of 2024, and production is targeted to begin in late 2027.

在歐洲，經過廣泛的盡職調查後，我們宣布了在德國德勒斯登建立一家專業技術工廠的計劃，專注於汽車和工業應用。我們已經收到我們的JV合作夥伴、歐洲委員會政府，以及德國聯邦、州和市政府對此項目的強烈承諾。這個晶圓廠將利用22和28奈米以及12/16奈米的技術進行半導體晶圓製造。預計晶圓廠的建設將於2024年下半年開始，並計劃在2027年底開始生產。

In Arizona, we are receiving strong support from the city of Phoenix, state of Arizona, and U.S. federal government, and continue to develop positive relationships and work closely with our local trade and union partners. We are making good progress on the fab infrastructure, utilities, and equipment installation issues in our first fab, and the situation is improving. We have also begun early preparation for our Arizona fab operations and hired close to 1,100 local TSMC employees so far. Many of them have been brought to Taiwan for extensive hands-on experience in our fab, so that they can further their technical skills while being immersed in TSMC operation environment and culture.

在亞利桑那州，我們得到了鳳凰城、亞利桑那州以及美國聯邦政府的大力支持，並且我們持續與當地的貿易和工會夥伴保持積極的關係並密切合作。我們在首座晶圓廠的基礎設施、公用設施和設備安裝問題上取得了良好的進展，情況正在改善。我們也已經開始為我們在亞利桑那的晶圓廠運營做早期準備，並已經聘用了接近 1100 名當地的台積電員工。許多人已到台灣，在台灣的晶圓廠進行廣泛的實地操作經驗，以便他們可以在沉浸於台積電的操作環境和文化中進一步提升他們的技術技能。

We continue to target volume production of N4 process technology in first half 2025, and are confident that once we begin operations, we will be able to deliver the same level of manufacturing quality and reliability in Arizona as from our fabs in Taiwan.

我們持續將目標設定在 2025 年上半年的 N4 製程技術量產，並且有信心一旦我們開始運營，就能在亞利桑那州提供與我們在台灣的晶圓廠相同水平的製造品質和可靠性。

In Japan, we build a specialty technology fab, which will utilize 12 and 16 nanometer and 22 and 28 nanometer process technologies. We have hired approximately 800 local TSMC employees so far, with the majority having similar being brought to Taiwan for hands-on experience. Equipment moving has begun this month, and volume production is on track for late 2024.

在日本，我們建立了一個專業的科技製程廠，將運用 12/16 奈米以及 22 和 28 奈米的製程技術。到目前為止，我們已經僱用了大約 800 名當地的台積電員工，其中大部分已被帶到台灣進行實地操作經驗的學習。設備搬遷已於本月開始，並預計在 2024 年底進行大規模生產。

In China, we have recently received an extension from the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security to continue our operation in Nanjing. We are currently in the process of applying for validated end-user authorization and expect to receive a permanent authorization in the near future.

在中國，我們最近從美國工業和安全局獲得了延期，以繼續我們在南京的運營。我們目前正在申請驗證終端使用者授權，並預期在不久的將來獲得永久授權。

From a cost perspective, the initial cost of oversea fabs are higher than TSMC fabs in Taiwan due to first, smaller fab scale, second, higher cost throughout the supply chain, and third, the early stage of semiconductor ecosystem overseas as compared to a matured ecosystem in Taiwan.

從成本角度來看，海外晶圓廠的初期成本高於台灣的台積電晶圓廠，原因有三：首先，海外晶圓廠的規模較小；其次，供應鏈的成本較高；第三，與台灣成熟的半導體生態系統相比，海外的半導體生態系統處於初期階段。

TSMC’s responsibility is to manage and minimize the cost gap to maximize the return for our shareholders. Our pricing will also remain strategic to reflect our value, which includes the value of geographic flexibility. We will also work closely with government to secure their support. At the same time, we are leveraging our fundamental competitive advantage of manufacturing technology leadership, large volume, economies of scale to continuously drive our cost down. By taking such actions, TSMC will have the ability to absorb the higher cost of oversea fabs and still deliver the long-term gross margin of 53% and higher and sustainable ROE of greater than 25%. We remain firm in our commitment to maximize the value for our shareholders.

台積電的責任是管理並最小化成本差距，以最大化我們股東的回報。我們的定價也將保持策略性，以反映我們的價值，其中包括地理靈活性的價值。我們也將與政府密切合作以獲得他們的支持。同時，我們正利用我們的基本競爭優勢，即製造技術領導力、大規模生產、規模經濟，以持續降低我們的成本。透過採取這樣的行動，台積電將有能力吸收海外晶圓廠的較高成本，並仍能實現長期毛利率達53% 以上，以及超過2 5% 的持續性股東權益報酬率。我們堅定不移地致力於最大化我們股東的價值。

Now let me talk about N3 and N3E ramp-up and progress. Our 3-nanometer technology, the most advanced semiconductor technology in both PPA and transistor technology. N3 is already in volume production with good yield, and we are seeing a strong ramp in the second half of this year, supported by both HPC and smartphone applications. We reaffirm N3 will contribute a single-digit percentage of our total wafer revenue in 2023, and we expect a much higher percentage in 2024, supported by robust demand for multiple customers.

現在讓我來談談 N3 和 N3E 的提升和進展。我們的3納米技術，是在 PPA （效能、功耗、面積）和電晶體技術方面最先進的半導體技術。N3 已經進入大量生產階段，並且產量良好，我們預見到今年下半年將有強勁的增長，這得到了高效能運算和智能手機應用的支持。我們再次確認，N3 將在 2023 年對我們的總晶圓收入貢獻個位數的百分比，並且我們預期在 2024 年，由於多個客戶的強勁需求，這一比例將大幅提高。

N3E will leverage the strong foundation of N3 to further extend our N3 family with enhanced performance, power, and yield, and provide complete platform support for both HPC and smartphone applications. N3E has passed qualification and achieved performance and yield targets, and will start volume production in fourth quarter of this year. We also continue to provide further enhancement of N3 technology, including N3P and N3X.

N3E 將利用 N3 的堅實基礎，進一步擴展我們的 N3 家族，提升性能、功率和產量，並為 HPC 和智慧型手機應用提供全面的平台支援。N3E 已通過資格認證，並達到了性能和產量目標，將於今年第四季度開始大量生產。我們也將繼續提供 N3 技術的進一步提升，包括 N3P 和 N3X。

With our strategy of continuous enhancement of our 3-nanometer process technologies, we expect strong multi-year demand from our customers, and we are confident that our 3-nanometer family will be another large and long-lasting node for TSMC.

透過我們持續強化3奈米製程技術的策略，我們預期客戶將有強勁的多年需求，並且我們有信心，我們的3奈米系列將會是台積電另一個大型且長期的節點。

Finally, I will talk about N2 status. The recent surge in AI-related demand supports our already strong conviction that demand for energy-efficient computing will accelerate in an intelligent and connected world. Thus, the value of our technology platform is expanding beyond the scope of geometry shrink alone and increasing toward greater power efficiency.

最後，我將談論N2的狀態。最近AI相關需求的激增，進一步強化了我們對於節能計算需求將在智慧且互聯的世界中加速的堅定信念。因此，我們的技術平台的價值正在超越僅僅是幾何縮小的範疇，並朝著更大的能源效率增長。

In addition, as process technology complexity increases, the lead time and engagement with customer also start much earlier. As a result, we are observing a strong level of customer interest and engagement at our N2, similar to or higher than N3 at the similar stage from both HPC and smartphone applications.

此外，隨著製程技術複雜度的提升，與客戶的接觸和前導時間也會提早開始。因此，我們在 N2 製程上觀察到了強烈的客戶興趣和參與度，無論是從 HPC 還是智慧型手機應用程序，這種程度都與 N3 在相似階段相當或更高。

Our 2-nanometer technology will be the most advanced semiconductor technology in the industry in both density and energy efficiency when it is introduced in 2025. Our N2 technology development is progressing well and on track for volume production in 2025. Our N2 will adopt nano-sheet transistor structure, which has demonstrated excellent power efficiency and will deliver four-node performance and power benefit to address the increasing need for energy-efficient computing.

我們的 2 奈米技術將在 2025 年推出時，成為業界最先進的半導體技術，無論在密度和能源效率上都是如此。我們的 N2 技術開發進展順利，並預計在 2025 年進行大規模生產。我們的 N2 將採用奈米片晶體管結構，該結構已經證明具有出色的功率效率，並將提供四節點的性能和功率優勢，以滿足對節能計算的日益增長的需求。

As part of N2 technology platform, we also develop N2 with backside power rail solution, which is the best suited for HPC applications. We are targeting backside power rail to be available in the second half of 2025 to customers with production in 2026. With our strategy of continuous enhancement, N2 is derivative will further extend our technology leadership way into the future.

作為 N2 技術平台的一部分，我們也開發了配備背面電源軌道解決方案的 N2，這是最適合高性能計算應用的。我們預計在 2025 年下半年向客戶提供背面電源軌道，並在 2026 年投入生產。憑藉我們持續增強的策略，N2 的衍生產品將進一步延伸我們的技術領導地位，直達未來。

This concludes our key message, and thank you for your attention. Thank you, C.C. This concludes our prepared statements.

這就是我們的重點訊息，感謝您的關注。謝謝，C.C。這就結束我們的預備發言。